Iran Again Turns to Force Against Demonstrations

Iranian officials last week tried to co-opt the peaceful Egyptian revolution, saying it resulted from "decades of bad rule under a suffocating regime" and was inspired by Iran's 1979 uprising. In a speech Friday, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad' said "the Iranian nation is witnessing the echo of its voice in other parts of the Muslim world."

Egyptians should continue until they "free" themselves," he said hours before Hosni Mubarak stepped down.

What's good for Egyptians is not so good for Iranians, though, as the Islamic republic sent its Basij militia and security forces into the streets and arrested two opposition leaders in advance of demonstrations in Tehran Monday.

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who challenged Ahmadinejad in disputed 2009 elections, were placed under house arrest.

Thousands of people still showed up for the demonstrations, which riot security forces armed with batons tried to break up. Clips posted to YouTube showed glimpses of the scene. Foreign media, which helped show the magnitude of Egypt's protests and the violence by pro-Mubarak forces, have been blocked from providing live coverage of events in Tehran.

Security forces are trying to stop protestors from gathering or to physically disperse them, the Agence France Presse reports. They fired tear gas and paint ball pellets at crowds chanting "Death to the Dictator."

Iran beat back the 2009 Green Movement through force and political crackdowns.

The U.S. State Department has started a Twitter feed in Farsi, sending messages about the Iranian government's hypocrisy on the respective demonstrations. "Iran has shown that the activities it praised Egyptians for it sees as illegal, illegitimate for its own people," said one tweet.

Pakistan Fights Terror with TV Series

A new TV drama series on Pakistani state television is changing the public narrative about Islamic radicals. The series is a change from the common criticism of America and the drone strikes, which are often blamed for creating terror.

"Here, the scoundrels are bearded mountain men with distorted ideas about Islam, and the heroes are the security forces and civilians dying at the hands of the extremists," the Washington Post writes. "The glossy, 11-part program is the latest rally-the-public effort by the army, long Pakistan's most powerful institution and now a favored target of homegrown militants."

According to the Post, "the state and the public remained ambivalent about fighting insurgents until they took over the bucolic Swat Valley, not far from Islamabad, the capital, in 2008." The army, a popular state institution in comparison with the administration, has also seen its reputation damaged by videos of soldiers executing prisoners and allegations of support for the Afghani Taliban. The series attempts to present both the successes and failures of Pakistan's war on terror, contrasting the recruiting strategies of the Taliban but admitting the failure of the state to present youth with opportunities.

It also takes the focus off of America, instead looking at sensitive topics like battle scenes and the real-life stories of those affected by terrorism. "We are trying to keep our product as close to reality as possible," said executive producer Khawar Azhar, whom made the series in partnership with the army. "If the suicide attacks are still taking place, if the schools and security establishments are still being bombed, then it is clear that the war is not over."

Brig. Gen. Syed Azmat Ali, an army spokesman, said there have been a flood of emails and calls to army headquarters about the series. "They keep calling," he said. "And everyone who rings is in tears."

Gaza Jihadist: It's OK to Kill Jewish, Christian Civilians

A Gaza-based radical leader says it is permissible to kill Jewish and Christian civilians while carrying out jihad, according to a document translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).

Abu Walid Al-Maqdisi, leader of the Jama'at Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad organization, was asked about Islam's position on killing innocent civilians during "martyrdom operations" such as the 9/11 attacks. He replied with a fatwa stating that although Islam prohibits the killing of innocents, Jews and Christians may be attacked because they are "aggressive combatants."

Even if some of the Jews and Christians in these countries may actually be innocent, Muslim scholars "have ruled that, in the case of a surprise attack, it is permissible to kill all of them" including innocent bystanders, he declared.

Nor should jihadists refrain from carrying out attacks for fear of accidentally harming Muslims "because this would mean stopping the jihad," Maqdisi ruled. Since "most of the infidel countries that are fighting Islam have some Muslims living in them," jihad cannot be halted for the protection of co-religionists residing in those states.

Read the full MEMRI translation here.

BREAKING NEWS: Mubarak Out

Protesters are cheering outside key institutions in Egypt, as Vice President Omar Suleiman has announced that President Mubarak has stepped down and the military will take charge. It is the end of this chapter of the revolution, but Egypt's path towards democracy remains unclear.

The statement came as protests moved from Cairo's central Tahrir Square to outside the Presidential Palace and state media. Egypt's state TV and international media also confirmed that President Mubarak fled to Sharm el-Sheikh on Friday.

The protesters were angered by President Mubarak's speech Thursday, which dealt with constitutional change but was perceived as insufficient and patronizing. President Mubarak claimed to concede some presidential powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman, but neither the Obama administration nor the protesters believed that the action met the people's demands.

There were signs of cracking before Mubarak's fall. Hussam Badrawi, Secretary General of the ruling NDP party, resigned his position in a telephone interview with al-Hayat Television. The military progressively removed barb wire fences blocking access to key institutions and a central bridge across the Nile, but maintained guard over the state buildings themselves. The state media had also taken the unprecedented step of criticizing the regime on national television.

Clapper Trapped

A spokeswoman for Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper has clarified his comments Thursday that the Muslim Brotherhood is "a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence."

"In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood makes efforts to work through a political system that has been, under Mubarak's rule, one that is largely secular in its orientation," said spokeswoman Jamie Smith. Clapper "is well aware that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a secular organization."

Be it ignorance of a key player in an evolving foreign policy crisis or a poor choice of words, Clapper's clarification isn't quieting his critics. Among Friday's headlines are "Kirk to Clapper on Muslim Brotherhood: WTF?" from Foreign Policy's website and "Clapper's crass Bro'hood bungle" in the New York Post.

Even with the clarification, "the damage has been done," the Heritage Foundation's Peter Brookes writes in the Post. "The DNI's testimony makes it appear that the US government either doesn't know the facts on the ground in Egypt or has mistakenly concluded that we shouldn't be concerned about the Brotherhood being large and in charge of that strategic Mideastern country. Either case is troubling."

Foreign Policy's article focuses on the response from Illinois Republican Sen. Mark Kirk, who issued a statement noting the assessment doesn't even match the Brotherhood's own recent statements. "As the world watches these historic events unfolding in Egypt, the United States should support an orderly transition to democracy that prevents the radical Muslim Brotherhood from grabbing power," Kirk writes.

A leading Muslim foe of groups like the Brotherhood said Clapper's assessment "presents a significant concern that our primary Intelligence officer has a complete lack of understanding of an organization that presents the greatest threat to the security of the United States."

M. Zuhdi Jasser, founder of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, said Clapper "is either grossly naïve or covering up for an ideology that is in an ideological war with the United States and western society."

Could Qaradawi Become Egypt's Khomeini?

If the Muslim Brotherhood gains prominence in a future Egyptian government, Imam Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a key spiritual guide, might return to his native land to help drive theological rule, writes Hudson Institute visiting fellow Lee Smith. Qaradawi, who now lives in Qatar, left Egypt and went into exile in 1961.

While parallels between Iran's 1979 revolution and Egypt's in 2011 are sometimes overdone, they cannot be ignored. "Cairo doesn't have to literally become a Sunni version of Tehran to do terrible damage to U.S. interests and prestige in the Middle East –and to the hopes and dreams of its own people," Smith writes.

There are a number of similarities between Qaradawi and Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini. Both operated as charismatic Islamists fighting against secular, autocratic regimes. Khomeini made broadcasts in exile from Paris; today, Qaradawi hosts a popular talk show on Al Jazeera called "Sharia and Life." Like Khomeini, Qaradawi is a virulent anti-Semite. He has lauded Hitler for putting Jews in their place and expressed hope he would die a martyr trying to kill Jews.

What makes the situation so dangerous, according to Smith, is the fact that the Egyptian party system offers no credible opposition leader as an alternative to President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak's National Democratic Party is likely to crumble when he leaves, making the Muslim Brotherhood the country's best organized party.

Qaradawi is "a media mogul who has risen to fame on the back of information technology" even though he holds views that are "essentially medieval" on subjects like wife-beating, which he supports, Smith observes.

The prospect that Qaradawi and the Brotherhood could play significant roles in Egypt's near-term future is an unhappy one for U.S. policymakers – torn between their support for democracy and the realization that in Egypt, the beneficiaries could well be enemies of liberal democracy and the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement. Washington needs to face the unpleasant reality that the more political power the Muslim Brotherhood wields, the more likely war becomes in the region, Smith writes.

House Passes PATRIOT Act Extensions

The House reversed its position on a measure to extend provisions of the PATRIOT Act, two days after the Republican-led proposal was shot down. The House voted 248-167 to bring the measure to a final vote, before its expiration on February 28^th, and move it on to the Senate.

The provision will extend the legality of "roving wiretaps," tracking of "lone wolf" terrorists not tied to particular extremist groups, and the seizure of personal or business records through the end of the year.

A procedural move in the initial vote required 2/3rds support for passage, which was not met when 26 Republicans bolted their party's line to vote against the bill. The second round of voting saw only 4 depart from the Republican bloc, with no division among Tea Partiers and Republicans.

Egypt's Unrest and Escaped Terrorists

Thousands of inmates escaped Egyptian jails during the current unrest, including Islamists, Hamas terrorists, a Hizballah member and al-Qaida operatives.

On Tuesday, Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman said the escapees included prisoners who "had not agreed to the initiative to halt violence and are still convinced that society is godless and this is a great threat." "We need a lot of effort to get them back (to jail)," he continued.

Hizballah operative Sami Chehab escaped from an Egyptian prison and made it safely to Beirut last week. Chehab was sentenced to 15 years in prison last year on charges that he was plotting attacks in Egypt.

Ayman Noufel, a prominent member of Hamas' military wing Izzedin al-Qassam Brigades, arrived in the Gaza Strip Saturday after escaping an Egyptian prison. Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh visited Noufel the next day, congratulating him on being free. Noufel, detained in 2007 in El Arish, returned to Gaza via underground smuggling tunnels. He was reportedly one of eight Palestinians who escaped from the Abu Za'abel prison, six of whom returned to Gaza.

Hassan Washah was the first Palestinian known to have escaped from the Abu Za'abel prison and return to Gaza. "I thank God that the will of the Egyptian people has led to my escape. What did I do to be imprisoned by an Arab regime?" Washah said. He had explosives on him which were to be used to attack Israel when he was captured by Egyptian authorities in 2007.

Asked whether he belongs to the Army of Islam, a Gaza terrorist group linked to al-Qaida, he said "It is true that I was assisted by the Army of Islam, but at the end of the day I consider myself a Palestinian fighter." Al Jazeera TV reported that upon returning to Gaza Washah said "his armed resistance against Israel will continue."

Al Qaeda, Iran Seek to Hijack Egypt's Revolution

Brookings Institution scholar Kenneth Pollack offers a cautionary note about who will be running Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak steps down. Even revolutions that succeed "often follow paths that no one foresaw – not their targets, not their protagonists, not the partisans on any side," he writes in the Wall Street Journal. "The Frenchmen who stormed the Bastille never foresaw the Terror. The Russians who stormed the Winter Palace never imagined Stalin's purges, the Gulag or the Great Famine. Most Iranians never meant to build a theocracy."

It is an "open question" as to whether eight months is sufficient time to prepare for Egyptian elections, writes Pollack, who served as a senior National Security Council official in the Clinton Administration.

But "advancing that timetable would be incredibly reckless," he writes. "It would be disastrous if the [Muslim] Brotherhood got to pick the next president of Egypt simply because it was the only organized party when elections were held."

No one should doubt that al-Qaida's number two official, Ayman Zawahiri, and his cohorts "were probably jubilant" when they learned that the revolution had begun. "They were likely also frustrated that they were not there to hijack it and lead it toward the radical Islamist state they seek. Zawahiri is probably doing whatever he can to play catch-up – to dispatch his supporters to Egypt to take control of the revolution," according to Pollack.

Equally pleased to see Egyptians rise up against Mubarak is the Iranian regime, which sees a key U.S. ally being eliminated and seeing "opportunity in chaos and violence, believing that anything that disrupts the region's American-backed status quo works to their advantage."

That chaos could lead to an Egyptian government that is more closely aligned with Iran than America. That's not what the protestors in Tahrir Square had in mind. "All of this," Pollack writes, "gives Iran and al Qaeda common interests that may drive them toward tacit cooperation – with the goal of fomenting a modern Bolshevik Revolution. Those who start revolutions are rarely those who end up in charge when the smoke clears and the barricades come down. And it's why the U.S., as Egypt's friend and ally, must try to prevent a revolution made in the name of democracy from being hijacked by something much worse."

House Blocks Key PATRIOT Act Provisions

House lawmakers struck down an extension of key PATRIOT Act provisions Tuesday night in a 277-148 vote. The bill failed to obtain the required 2/3 vote (or 284 in favor), under special fast-track rules usually reserved for non-controversial bills with a high likelihood of passing.

As the voting results—and previous concerns over these very same provisions—show, this topic is anything but non-controversial.

If it had passed, the bill would have extended the legality of "roving wiretaps," tracking of "lone wolf" terrorists not tied to particular extremist groups, and the seizure of personal or business records through the end of the year. The provisions are currently set to expire at the end of the month.

White House support for the legislation, H.R. 514, did little to cajole House Democrats into voting for it. Voting largely along party lines, 122 Democrats voted against the bill, with 4 abstaining.

Where things went awry was on the Republican side of the aisle, where 26 members crossed party lines to vote in dissent. Among the rolls were a few freshman members from the Tea Party caucus, though notably, none from that caucus's leadership. As such, and contrary to much of what has been reported, it seems that the bill's defeat had little to do specifically with Tea Party maneuvering.

As we previously reported, the controversial provisions axed Tuesday were renewed without change last year after a 315-97 vote in favor. That was merely a temporary fix, however, pushing off discussion of the merits of the provisions for one year.

Among the details that lawmakers disagree on is the timeline for when the provisions should expire. Many Senate Republicans have called for the law to be extended permanently, while some Democrats are calling for a significantly shorter sunset term. Others still, are siding with the President, who has called for extending the controversial provisions through 2013.

"This approach would ensure appropriate congressional oversight by maintaining a sunset, but the longer duration provides the necessary certainty and predictability that our Nation's intelligence and law enforcement agencies require as they continue to protect our national security," the White House said in a press release.

Officials in Washington are confident the provisions will pass on a re-vote under normal House rules. What is viewed by many as a "temporary hit" to the bill's passage, has shown more about the Republican rank-and-file's willingness to buck their leadership than any real commentary on the merits of the bill's provisions. One thing is for certain, Democratic leaders are having a field day with the outcome.

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