Tunisian Winds Sweep Across Yemen

The Yemeni central government is feeling the "winds from Tunisia" as 20,000 people gathered for a local 'Day of Rage' in the capital, Sana'a. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's offer to not seek reelection in 2013 ns after more than 30 years of rule was rejected by Yemen's opposition. Areas of the country outside government control continue to simmer.

"Today will bring more, fresh pressure on President Saleh, who will have to present further concessions to the opposition," said Wael Mansour, a protest organizer, outside of Sana'a University in the nation's capital. Demonstrators chanted "The people want regime change" and "No to corruption, no to dictatorship."

Government opposition leaders refused to meet with Saleh and promised more rallies until they receive his proposal through "official circles." The government cracked down on rallies in the southern city of Aden, which demonstrators calling for southern independence would make the new nation's capital.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has also increased pressure on the government and fractured society by declaring war on the nation's Shiite minority. "Jihad against northern Shiites has been declared since the implementation of the AQAP's twin martyred car bombing attacks against convoys of Shiite rebels' in the northern provinces of Jawf and Sa'ada on Nov. 24 and Nov. 26 of the last year," said Saeed Ali Al-Shihri, deputy leader of AQAP, in a recent video.

AQAP also executed a top Yemeni intelligence official on Monday and has successfully beaten back government attempts to reign in its influence. "Deputy Director of the Yemeni Political Security Service, Colonel Ali Mohammed Salah al-Husam, was executed, with bullets fired at the back of his head, after he admitted that he had spied on Mujahedeen in the previous years," AQAP officials said in a recent video release. "The execution of this officer is also a message to those intelligence officers who still work for Sana'a government and the U.S. intelligence agencies." In September, AQAP gave the government a 48-hour ultimatum to exchange hostages for al-Husam,

Cables released by Wikileaks last week reveal American unease about relying on Saleh, but a lack of other options. "Saleh appears to be muddling through a challenging situation, but there is concern that he is relying on a shrinking leadership circle consisting of family, the military, and some tribal elements," said a 2003 cable. However, the document said, "The United States sees no real alternative to supporting Saleh. The U.S. is nevertheless determined to send a very clear message on its future expectations while assistance will be conditionally based."

Islamist Win Would Jeopardize U.S. Military, Intelligence Assets

The United States would lose vital military assets if Egypt fell to radical Islamists, experts on military and intelligence issues say.

"Let me count the ways," retired U.S. Army Col. Ken Allard told The Washington Times when asked about the potential damage. "They are our biggest strategic partner in the Middle East. At that point, you've lost your biggest Arab partner. Geostrategically, the mind boggles."

With a hostile regime in Egypt, the United States would likely lose access to the Suez Canal, which sharply reduces the amount of time it takes for U.S. warships to reach the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Egypt receives upwards of $1 billion annually in U.S. military aid. Other U.S. allies in the region send their own personnel to Egypt to participate in an exercise called Bright Star to practice ground operations, urban warfare and air assaults.

"The biggest threat is that rather than having an ally in Mubarak, who has helped keep a lid on radical jihadists in Egypt at this pivotal crossroads, you may have a government that facilitates radical jihadists throughout the region and as a potential export location to other parts of the world, primarily into Europe," said former Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., who served as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Allard expressed concern that a growing number of Egyptian military officers are sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood.

"What you've got is a generational situation in the officer corps in Egypt," he said. "If you had a council of colonels, it would probably be a lot more Islamists," who "have their own grudges against israel and the U.S. I'm sure there are people in the officer corps, who we do not know their names yet, who have got their own generational grudges. Over time, that has become a much more troubling situation."

Attacker of Muhammad Cartoonist Convicted in Denmark

A Somali man who broke into the home of a Danish cartoonist who caricatured the Prophet Muhammad has been unanimously convicted by a jury of attempted murder and terrorism. The assailant, Mohamed Geele, had links to the terrorist organization al-Shabaab and could face a life sentence for his attempted axe and knife attack on 75-year-old Kurt Westergaard.

"The court deems that the attempted murder of Kurt Westergaard in his own home, (of the man who) personifies the Muhammad cartoon affair, must be considered as an attempt to instill a heightened level of fear in the population and to destabilize the structures of society," Judge Ingrid Thorsboe told the court. In addition to facing life imprisonment, Geele could be deported.

The cartoonist survived the attack by hiding in a panic room but left his granddaughter, 5, outside with the assailant.

Geele said he intended only to scare Westergaard, not hurt him. "I thought that by threatening and scaring Kurt Westergaard, maybe I could convince him to stop bragging about his drawings," he said. "I had seen in the media that his house was surrounded by police officers one time when he had received an anonymous parcel. So I thought that since he wasn't going to open the door for me, I'd better bring my axe so I could get through the door."

Threats and plots against Muhammad cartoonists and the newspapers that published his cartoons their cartoons have accelerated in recent months. On Dec. 29, Swedish and Danish police arrested 5 suspects who planned to launch a "Mumbai-style attack" on the offices of Danish paper Jyllands-Posten, in what the Danish justice minister called "the most serious terror attempt in Denmark." The Somalis convicted of terrorism in Sweden are appealing, arguing that Sweden's anti-terror legislation does not cover the al-Shabaab militia. "It seems doubtful that (Sweden's) anti-terror legislation can apply to the conflict in Somalia," said their lawyer.

Al-Shabaab issued threats in late November against Lars Vilks, a cartoonist in Sweden, through a Swedish-speaking member of its organization. Drawing his finger across his throat, al-Shabaab fighter Abu Zaid threatened, "Know what awaits you, as it will be nothing but this, slaughter… and to my brothers and sisters, I call you to make Hijra [emigrate] Inshallah, and if you can, kill this dog Lars Vilks. Then you will receive a great reward from Allah." Al-Shabaab has been trying to recruit from the international Somali diaspora in Scandinavia, America, and beyond.

The E-Battlefield: Taking Back the Web from Jihadists

In a bold move to reclaim cyberspace from jihadi propagandists, global governments have recently committed to a comprehensive effort aimed at challenging on their own turf those who radicalize others, the New York Times reports.

This move comes as counter-terrorism officials worldwide struggle to quell a surge of homegrown terrorists, radicalized online, and seemingly impossible to spot prior to their murderous acts. And it's not just governments fearing this new threat; As-Sharq Al-Awsat reported in January that many of the old-guard jihadists were feeling uneasy about the uncontrollable nature of "the new generation who draw on jihadist ideology from the internet."

So what does this new push to curtail radicalization online entail?

The plan going forward is to work through various international organizations and a host of private or non-profit groups to wage "a counterattack to try to undermine the appeal of terrorists, expose their lack of legitimacy, and attack the credibility of their ideology and online messengers."

In the case of Saudi Arabia, much of the work is being done by "the independent, nongovernmental Sakinah campaign, supported by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, [who] uses Islamic scholars who oppose terrorism to interact online with seekers of religious knowledge."

And in Pakistan, authorities are taking to the popular video-sharing site, YouTube, posting "gruesome videos of mosques bombed by Islamic extremists, to show that such attacks kill fellow Muslims."

Over the past year, YouTube was frequently criticized for its witting or unwitting complicity in helping spread the jihadists' message and arguably, aiding radicalization. Positive efforts by the Google-owned site to proactively take down offending material have proven to be largely ineffective.

According to the Times, anti-radicalization efforts are as much about the messenger as the message itself. Both must be convincing in order to sway potential recruits from the path of extremism. These messengers have ranged "from extremists who have renounced their pasts to Pakistani cricket stars who presumably have wide appeal among the youth solicited by both sides."

Regardless of who is delivering the message and what is said, counterterrorism officials acknowledge that their effort is an uphill battle. It is no easy task "coming up with an effective counter to Al Qaeda's simple but powerful narrative: that the United States and the West are at war with Islam; that Muslims are unjustly discriminated against and persecuted; and that only violent action can bring change."

American Policy Toward the Muslim Brotherhood

In the streets of Cairo, Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators refer to people like Mohammed El-Baradei, leader of the secularist opposition, as "donkeys of the revolution" to be used and then pushed away, writes Israeli analyst Dore Gold.

The key question now "is whether the Obama administration's policy toward Egypt will be based on a perception that the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood would be extremely dangerous," writes Gold, formerly Israel's U.N. ambassador. "Or have they taken the position - voiced in parts of the U.S. foreign policy establishment - that the Muslim Brotherhood has become moderate and can be talked to?"

Early indications are that the administration supports a role for the Brotherhood in a new Egyptian government. Gold, however, makes a strong implicit case that, given the organization's long history of radicalism, bringing it into government would be a mistake.

Those in the Western foreign-policy establishment who advocate engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood do so based on a "dangerous misconception" that the organization has become moderate and can be talked to, Gold writes. In reality, the group has been a zealous ideological advocate of jihad since its founding in 1928.

Its alumni include Abdullah Azzam (a mentor of Osama bin Laden); Ayman al-Zawahiri (bin Laden's deputy); and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, al-Qaida's 9/11 mastermind.

"Given this background, the Muslim Brotherhood has been widely regarded in the Arab world as the incubator of the jihadist ideology. A former Kuwaiti minister of education, argued…that the founders of most modern terrorist groups in the Middle East emerged from 'the mantle' of the Muslim Brotherhood," Gold writes. In October 2007, columnist Hussein Shobokshi wrote in the Saudi-owned Al-Sharq al-Awsat that "to this day" the organization "has brought nothing but fanaticism, divisions and extremism, and in some cases bloodshed and killings."

Yet, even as Arab governments and opinion-makers express reservations about dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood, prominent figures in the West have been trying to make the case that it is time to open a dialogue with the group. Among those listed by Gold are Dr. Robert S. Leiken and Steven Brooke (authors of this article in Foreign Affairs entitled "The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood," in which they advised the Bush Administration to enter into a strategic alliance with that organization); New York Times correspondent James Traub, who suggested that the Brotherhood has moderated; and a committee in the House of Commons which advocated that Great Britain open a dialogue with the group as well.

Gold counters by quoting from a September sermon from the group's current supreme guide in Egypt, Muhammad Badie, in which he emphasized that Muslims today "need to understand that the improvement and change that the [Muslim] nation seeks can only be attained through jihad and sacrifice and by raising a jihadi generation that pursues death, just as the enemies pursue life."

Read the full article here.

Al-Shabaab Vows Revenge on Transitional Government

Al-Shabaab is stepping up its campaign against Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and African forces (AMISOM) in the beleaguered capital of Mogadishu. The group vowed to take revenge after a government soldier opened fire on a populated area near the Banadir hospital, killing 20 people and wounding more than 80.

"The people in the areas under the government and AMISOM knew that the government and AU troops aim at murdering the people. Everybody knows that," said spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage. "We urge to all the people in those areas to work with Al-shabab fighters to achieve the [defeat of these] criminals soon." Al-Shabaab tried to capitalize on the attack by publicly encouraging its fighters to be careful of hurting civilians, despite its record of brutality and executions.

The TFG, which is completely surrounded in Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab troops, is under pressure as its United Nations mandate expires in August. "The constitutional process should have been our ideal path but ... we don't want a half-baked document to define the destiny of Somalis," Augustine Mahiga, the U.N.'s special representative for Somalia told a news conference in the Kenyan capital Nairobi. "We are all agreed this (interim administration) has to end." The UN is encouraging the TFG to negotiate with moderates from al-Shabaab and other factions.

Al-Shabaab has not moderated its extreme form of Sharia law. On January 31^st, the group publically executed a man accused of being a CIA agent for the past 16 months. The victim, Ahmed Ali Hussein, was a cleric for the Ictizam sect, which opposes al-Shabaab policies.

"They are all talking about killing people whether they are innocent or not. If you try to offer your comments you will face their wrath," said 19-year-old defector Deeq Abdirahman. "The only option they have is killing, so I realized that their ambitions are not about religion."

Syria's President Talks of "New Era"

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who inherited a one-party regime from his father, has told the Wall Street Journal that he will push for more reforms in his country after the Egyptian riots.

"If you didn't see the need of reform before what happened in Egypt and Tunisia, it's too late to do any reform," Assad said in an interview in Damascus. "Syria is stable. Why, because you have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people. This is the core issue. When there is divergence you will have this vacuum that creates disturbances."

Assad has taken a popular stance with his public and among Arab countries in general, by funding and supporting terrorists organizations against Israeli in the region.

However, the pace of economic reform in Syria has been slow and al-Assad's rule has been unpopular.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood responded to Assad's comments with a statement, calling for "constitutional change to ensure the end of totalitarian rule, removing Article VIII of the constitution that imposes single-party rule; removing the emergency laws and the martial laws; eradicating corruption and prosecuting the corrupt, as well as recovering any money, and quickly resolve the problems of poverty, unemployment, starvation, and illiteracy."

There are also calls on Facebook for a Syrian "Day of Rage," supported by the Independent Islamic Bloc, a division of the "Damascus Declaration" opposition movement. The Syrian Brotherhood had previously announced its "total support for the Damascus Declaration" in anticipation of a "national congress on the path of democratic and peaceful change. Assad is reportedly meeting with security officials to move divisions from the Iraqi front to Damascus to deal with any protests.

Syria's failures mirror widespread corruption, poverty, and government mismanagement that started the Tunisian and Egyptians riots. Like Algeria and Jordan, Syria is maintaining costly but popular food subsidies. It's no guarantee for stability, as the measure failed to persuade Tunisian protesters to abandon their demonstrations.

Syria's government could be considered more repressive that other tottering regimes. "Mr. Assad's government, and that of his late father Hafez al-Assad, have been criticized as among the region's most repressive, detaining opponents without charges," the Journal interview said. "Syria's one-party political system and government-controlled media, meanwhile, are seen by many as more rigid than Egypt's or Tunisia's."

Violent Clashes, Brotherhood Intrigue in Egypt

Egypt's street protests turned violent Wednesday as factions loyal to President Hosni Mubarak clash with his opponents. Meanwhile, the U.S. government admits that it was caught off guard by the protests. The Muslim Brotherhood is denying meeting with American officials while still refusing to negotiate with the regime unless it agrees to step down.

Pro-Mubarak protesters, who may be plainclothes police officers, attacked anti-government demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Mubarak supporters rode horses and camels into the crowd, whipping protesters while the demonstrators pulled some off their saddles and beat them. Other reports indicate the pro-Mubarak forces threw Molotov cocktails and attacked their opponents with pipes and makeshift machetes. Protesters are breaking up cement blocks on the square to make rubble to throw. The gardens outside the Cairo Museum are on fire, but the museum appears secure.

Muslim Brotherhood officials deny claims that one of their leaders met with an official at the American embassy. The group continued to call for Mubarak to resign immediately. "Be wary of Mubarak's promises of reform. What happened today is an example of the so-called reform he intends to implement," said Ashraf Abdel Ghaffar in an article on the Brotherhood's English website. "Mubarak has actively sought, and in agreement with our enemies, to destroy our nation internally and externally… Stand firm on your position and never cower to Mubarak's dictates, because with your patience, steadfastness and ability to challenge, the sun will shine and we will witness the end of our oppressors."

The U.S. government's position has not formally changed, but comments by the White House show a growing frustration with the Egyptian government. "The time for a transition has come and it has come now," said Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. He declined to elaborate. "The president of Egypt has the chance to show the world who he is" over the course of a transition from power. Gibbs also warned that any violence originating from the Egyptian government must stop "immediately."

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told U.S. diplomats that they were in "uncharted territory."

"There are too many forces at work," she said, "some of which we are only beginning to understand. Too many cross currents and complexities."

The UN has issued statements of support for non-violent protests against the government. "I once again urge restraint to all the sides," said Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. "An unacceptable situation is happening. Any attack against the peaceful demonstrators is unacceptable and I strongly condemn it."

Muslim American Warns of Brotherhood Danger

American elites are whitewashing the danger posed by the Muslim Brotherhood in nations like Egypt, writes Dr. Qanta Ahmed, a prominent Muslim American physician.

Democracy's arrival "can be dangerous when violently birthed into a vacuum," Ahmed writes in the Huffington Post. "Such 'Just-Add-al-Jazeera' democracies can empower vengeful minorities like the Muslim Brotherhood. Instant democracy contains dangers for both Egyptians and citizens of established democracies such as ours here in the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel."

Today, "elegant appeals for restraint from demonizing the Muslim Brotherhood have already started appearing in the mainstream U.S. press, laying the ground for its palatable rebranding. Gently ushered in within the frightening guise of politically correct and appetizing pluralism - 'we can coexist with secularity' fundamentalist Islam espoused by the Muslim Brotherhood is already welcomed as if it is 'the choice of the people.' Articulate, erudite Egyptians in well-cut suits assure us that…fundamentalist Islam could not happen in their country."

Ahmed, who has firsthand experience living and working in Muslim lands, believes what is occurring in Egypt is "an Islamist movement's a la carte dream come true." But instead of telling the American public what is actually going on, the media is feeding them a steady diet of "well-spoken academics" providing false reassurances that the Brotherhood is not a major threat to liberty.

"Make no mistake," she writes, "the Muslim Brotherhood is a menacingly ambitious group which seeks staggering influence in international and domestic politics and has an unshakable view of installing an ultraorthodox Sharia through the bedrock of constitutions and democracy in a way that will favor repression, social control, and seek to expunge pluralism and secularism."

She calls out the Islamic Society of North America, Council on American-Islamic Relations and Muslim Students Association as "public relations organizations [which] have surreptitiously become part of the establishment of American Islam's mouthpieces." They "now speak for all Muslim Americans, whether we like it or not, whether we want it or not."

The American Muslim community is relatively small, spread out and diverse, Ahmed writes, so no one can claim to speak on its behalf. Yet, Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in the United States "function covertly as components to community advocacy groups who are inexplicably empowered by a naïve or perhaps deliberately wily U.S. administration fulfilling shortsighted politically correct goals while persistently failing to see the risks presented by engaging with such organizations at the exclusion of the influences of smaller and far more moderate groups."

Meanwhile, "peaceful Egyptian relations with Israel, the keystone to a functioning Middle East and the gateway to wider stability, are possibly at an abrupt end. A new era is arriving. Israel must now worry about a Southern front once more. Egyptian cooperation with the U.S. on the War on Terror and their tacit collaboration in 'containing' the Palestinian problem are all on the table now."

Read her full column here.

Yemen after Saleh

"Yemen is not like Tunisia," Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said in a televised debate with the opposition on January 24^th. Saleh may have a point, according to Dana Stuster of the Center for a New American Security. Despite Yemen's instability, it lacks the preconditions for a revolt similar to the ones in Egypt and Tunisia. A more likely end to the regime may come from 78 year-old Saleh's decision to not run in the 2013 elections.

Yemen's opposition movement is "incredibly fragmented," Stuster writes. Few of the "motley assortment of groups jockeying for influence" seem prepared to come together on a coherent vision for Yemen. The nation is "a volatile cocktail of religious and political factions," which include Sunni and Shiite, rural tribes and urban elites, and movements seeking autonomy or independence from the government.

The army is loyal to Saleh, who recently raised salaries as "a hedge against disloyalty and an investment in the future stability of his regime."

Yemen also doesn't have the same socio-economic conditions that sparked Egyptian and Tunisian revolts. Yemen is a universally poor country with little wealth to distribute and few economic opportunities, should the government collapse. Egyptian anger was sparked by the placing of growing public industries in the hands of local supporters of the regime. Tunisians expressed frustration with the widespread corruption that disrupted economic growth in their largely Western-oriented country.

Yemeni opposition forces do seem to share a common, unfriendly attitude to the U.S. government and its counterterrorism measures. Brigadier General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, the commander of the Yemen armed forces, "has hinted that he won't tolerate Ahmed [President Saleh's son] becoming president" and "may run, or he might just cross the Rubicon and take the government." He also "financed jihadis as well, arranging the travel for Yemenis to go to Afghanistan (first to fight the Soviets, then the Americans) and Iraq." Hamid al Ahmar, the Islah party candidate, leads a political organization that is Wahhabi in orientation and close to Sheikh Abdul Majid al Zindani, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist.

"None of the candidates to succeed Salih seem conciliatory to U.S. interests, and it will not be enough to hope that Yemen's coming resource crisis will force the prospective Islah Party government or al Ahmar military regime into a dialogue, Stuster writes. "The United States needs to start making friends now, especially outside of [the capital] Sanaa, with local and tribal leaders. The tribes are a constant in Yemen; the government, after a 30-some year hiatus, is about to be a lot less so."

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